Рацио - это скучно. Настоящий ирландский герой первым делом побеждает логику
words `bout Mc-21
a fuckin` lot of lettersWhen Russia’s United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) launched its new single-aisle aircraft MS-21, its ambitions were clear. The aircraft’s name, Magistralny Samoljot 21 Veka, means “mainline aircraft of the 21st century.” The company was not alluding to mainline routes within Russia. It was thinking global. After all, Irkut President Oleg Demchenko believes the aircraft is “the best in its class”—a class that includes Boeing’s 737 product line, the Airbus A320 family and an upstart contender from China, the Comac C919.
The MS-21, which rolled out on June 8 in Irkutsk, is intended as Russia’s second step in its return to the world stage of aircraft manufacturing. A worthy aim to be sure, and one that airline customers will welcome. Customers always cheer more supplier competition, more options. But how realistic is Russian industry’s goal?
The country’s civil aircraft industry collapsed along with the Soviet Union, and it has undergone years of slow progress, rife with unsuccessful attempts. The Superjet 100, now in service with two Western operators—Ireland’s Cityjet and Mexico’s Interjet—was seen as the first sign of significant technological progress, but given the complex industrial setup, the resulting inefficiencies and other encumbrances, it is still highly reliant on government subsidies and unlikely to become a commercial success. So will the MS-21’s fate be different?
Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia believes the answer is “no.” He thinks the MS-21 faces steep odds in gaining market traction, starting with the fact that it is being built by a government-owned company in Russia. “It’s a little like China in that you’ve got tremendous talent and pretty good resources,” he says. “But if it’s in the hands of an authoritarian government, it’s not going to happen. I don’t think [China’s] Comac is going anywhere, either.”
Politics, industrial efficiency, trust—Aboulafia’s comments are indicative of the reservations Western industry partners and potential airline customers have always had against aircraft built in the East. Most important, aircraft performance of the likes of the Tupolev Tu-204 or Tu-154 has historically never approached the level of a 737 or an A320, making them an impossible option for any airline that has a choice.
Even if all goes well, the MS-21 will be able to capture only a tiny fraction of the world market because UAC’s own assumptions for peak production rates end at few more than 70 aircraft per year. If Boeing and Airbus implement their planned expansion, each will build that number in little more than one month. It compares to around the 125-150 thatBombardier targets for its C Series once production is in full swing after 2020. Taking into account that most of the early-production MS-21s are expected to end up in Russian airline livery, only a few will be seen flying with international carriers, even in the medium term.
But before counting Russia out, there are some other factors to consider. Perhaps most important: Russia is not China. The Russian aerospace industry has a long history and deep technological know-how. It has a far more robust base to build on for the MS-21 than Comac has for the C919. Russian aerodynamicists are highly regarded, and where the industry has always been behind (particularly in engine technology) the aircraft can now rely on foreign partners. If it fails, it will not be because of a technology gap between it and Western models, but because of an inability to, for whatever reason, turn what appears to be a convincing design into a commercial success.
The MS-21 is by far the most advanced civil aircraft Russia has ever built. That applies to innovative technologies—unlike the 737 MAX or A320neo the aircraft has a composite wing—as well as to UAC’s industrial approach. At last, a Russian-led aircraft project is a truly international venture, as illustrated by the selection of Pratt & Whitney’s PW1400Ggeared turbofan engines along with other key systems. The country continues to make the most of its technical capabilities at home, especially from subsidiaries.
The MS-21 was formally launched as a successor to the Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-154 and Tu-204/-214. The Tu-154 fleet, which was a workhorse for Russian airlines 10 years ago, is now almost completely retired. The last Tu-204 commercial deliveries took place in early 2010; now UAC assembles a few units per year only for government customers. Although the improved Tu-204SM variant received Russian certification in 2013, no orders have been placed.
MS-21 development began in the mid-2000s. Its configuration was finally frozen in 2011. The rolled-out prototype represents the baseline MC-21-300 variant. It has a maximum takeoff weight of 79,250 kg (174,716 lb.) and will be able to carry up to 211 passengers a distance of 3,200 nm
If UAC manages to deliver the aircraft as specified, it will have some advantages over its Western competitors. Although the aircraft is longer than the A320neo by almost five meters (16 ft.) (see table), it weighs the same. It is three tons lighter than the 737-8, which is almost three meters shorter. In a typical two-class layout, manufacturer assumptions on seating capacity are nearly equivalent: 162 for the 737-8, 163 for the MS-21-300 and 165 for the A320neo. According to published specifications, the 737-8 and A320neo do seem to have a slight range advantage of about 200 nm.
UAC plans to offer two additional MS-21 variants. The smaller -200 is in preliminary design. Its maximum takeoff weight is planned to be 72,560 kg, as the fuselage will be 8.5 meters shorter. The aircraft will be designed for 165 passengers in two classes, and UAC expects it to have a maximum range of about 3,500 nm. The family officially includes the stretched 230-seat MS-21-400, but development has been shelved for several years, and its realization appears uncertain
The MS-21 is now scheduled to make its first flight in early 2017. Its 2016 target was delayed because of the time required to complete ground checks. Russian certification is planned for 2018, followed by European Aviation Safety Agency approval a year later, say Irkut officials.
The second test airframe is in final assembly at the Irkut plant. It is expected to be sent to TsAGI Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute in Zhukovsky for static tests in September. Irkut is now assembling two more aircraft, one for flight trials, the other for fatigue testing.
The MS-21 will enter service using the 31,000-lb.-thrust variant of the PW1400G-JM engine. Including the two installed on the prototype, Pratt & Whitney has delivered three engines to Irkut so far. The engine, which received FAA certification in early May, is turbo-mechanically identical to the PW1100G developed for the A320neo, but incorporates different accessories and external dressings to adapt it for the Russian airliner.
“We have sent two compliance engines and we have a third already sent out to Irkut. That engine has entered its podding cycle in Irkutsk,” says Jill Albertelli, vice president of Pratt’s 30K (30,000-lb.-thrust) programs. “Beyond that, we are delivering further PW1400Gs and have quite a few engines in our Middletown, Connecticut, and West Palm Beach, Florida, production facilities,” she adds. Albertelli says all MS-21 engines will reflect the post-certification improvements made to the Airbus engine.
The alternative powerplant will be the Aviadvigatel PD-14 engine, another UAC subsidiary. The PD-14 began flight tests on the IL76LL flying test lab in late 2015. United Engine Corp. says the first powerplants for testing onboard MS-21 will be available in 2017, and the first Russian-powered aircraft will be ready for delivery to airline customers in 2019.
UAC has bet high on lighter-weight materials: an all-composite high-aspect-ratio supercritical wing has been designed for maximum aerodynamic efficiency in cruise flight. Other composite components include the center wingbox as well as the vertical and horizontal fins. The wingbox and the wing panels are produced using vacuum infusion technology at AeroComposit in Ulyanovsk, another UAC subsidiary.
The avionics system has been designed and integrated by UAC, but features components supplied by Western manufacturers, among them Honeywell, Thales and Elbit Systems. The avionics suite includes multifunctional 9 X 12-in. displays, electronic flights bags, enhanced vision and synthetic vision systems. The MS-21 will also have active sidesticks supplied by United Technologies Aerospace Systems.
The MS-21 program builds on experience made with the Sukhoi Superjet 100 that attracted a significant number of foreign partners. “We welcome those [foreign] businessmen that work in Russia and achieve impressive successes together with our country,” Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at the MS-21 rollout ceremony.
International cooperation is not limited to components and subsystems. Irkut used foreign contractors to set up a modern production line at its facility in Irkutsk, a plant that was previously focused on the production of Sukhoi Su-30MK fighters and Yakovlev Yak-130 jet trainers. The MS-21 is the first commercial jet program for Irkut.
Irkut officials point out that they have gained a lot of understanding of Western commercial aircraft production standards from the experience as a supplier of landing gear bays for the Airbus A320. This partnership was forged in 2004 and initially included keel beams and flap tracks. Deliveries to Airbus began in 2007. The company now supplies 12 bays per month to Airbus.
The key challenge will be reaching a sufficient number of international sales. This will require proven high dispatch reliability and a track record of a well-functioning, efficient product-support organization wherever the aircraft flies. Previous Russian aircraft models’ deficiencies are well-documented. What is more, the MS-21 is competing with manufacturers that benefit from all the advantages of experience and a huge installed aircraft base. To convince a Western airline operating a large 737 or A320 fleet to switch to a newcomer will be extremely difficult.
According to Kirill Budaev, Irkut’s vice president of marketing and sales, the manufacturer plans to sell 1,060 MS-21s in the next 20 years. But the current backlog is nowhere near that target and has stood unchanged at 175 firm orders for many years. In addition, most orders have been placed by Russian government-owned leasing companies that can hardly be used as a reference for market success.
The largest customer—Avia Capital Services, a subsidiary of Russia’s Rostec state corporation—signed for 85 aircraft. Fifty are earmarked for launch operator Aeroflot. Two other Russian lessors, Ilyushin Finance and VEB Leasing, ordered 50 and 30 aircraft, respectively. The only direct airline order for 10 aircraft came from Irkutsk-based Iraero. Irkut says it also has about 100 additional preliminary commitments.
Pricing will be an important element. In order to compete in the global market, UAC assumes the MS-21 will have to entice buyers by offering a price that is 15% lower than its rivals’. The list price for the MS-21-300 version is currently $91 million. That compares to $107 million for the A320neo and $110 million for the 737-8 (in 2015 dollars).
Teal’s Aboulafia questions how sufficient efficiency gains can be reached to allow for the lower price tag, noting that the Russian manufacturer is drawing on many of the same suppliers that Airbus and Boeing use and is unlikely to get those components at a lower price. In fact, quite the opposite may be the case. “You’d have to be super efficient” to lower costs that much, he says.
MS-21 development costs have amounted to 100 billion rubles ($1.5 billion) so far Of this sum, 80% was underwritten by the Russian government; the rest was financed by UAC. The government is likely to continue providing support for the MS-21 program as it does for the in-production Sukhoi Superjet SSJ100.
by AW
a fuckin` lot of lettersWhen Russia’s United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) launched its new single-aisle aircraft MS-21, its ambitions were clear. The aircraft’s name, Magistralny Samoljot 21 Veka, means “mainline aircraft of the 21st century.” The company was not alluding to mainline routes within Russia. It was thinking global. After all, Irkut President Oleg Demchenko believes the aircraft is “the best in its class”—a class that includes Boeing’s 737 product line, the Airbus A320 family and an upstart contender from China, the Comac C919.
The MS-21, which rolled out on June 8 in Irkutsk, is intended as Russia’s second step in its return to the world stage of aircraft manufacturing. A worthy aim to be sure, and one that airline customers will welcome. Customers always cheer more supplier competition, more options. But how realistic is Russian industry’s goal?
The country’s civil aircraft industry collapsed along with the Soviet Union, and it has undergone years of slow progress, rife with unsuccessful attempts. The Superjet 100, now in service with two Western operators—Ireland’s Cityjet and Mexico’s Interjet—was seen as the first sign of significant technological progress, but given the complex industrial setup, the resulting inefficiencies and other encumbrances, it is still highly reliant on government subsidies and unlikely to become a commercial success. So will the MS-21’s fate be different?
Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia believes the answer is “no.” He thinks the MS-21 faces steep odds in gaining market traction, starting with the fact that it is being built by a government-owned company in Russia. “It’s a little like China in that you’ve got tremendous talent and pretty good resources,” he says. “But if it’s in the hands of an authoritarian government, it’s not going to happen. I don’t think [China’s] Comac is going anywhere, either.”
Politics, industrial efficiency, trust—Aboulafia’s comments are indicative of the reservations Western industry partners and potential airline customers have always had against aircraft built in the East. Most important, aircraft performance of the likes of the Tupolev Tu-204 or Tu-154 has historically never approached the level of a 737 or an A320, making them an impossible option for any airline that has a choice.
Even if all goes well, the MS-21 will be able to capture only a tiny fraction of the world market because UAC’s own assumptions for peak production rates end at few more than 70 aircraft per year. If Boeing and Airbus implement their planned expansion, each will build that number in little more than one month. It compares to around the 125-150 thatBombardier targets for its C Series once production is in full swing after 2020. Taking into account that most of the early-production MS-21s are expected to end up in Russian airline livery, only a few will be seen flying with international carriers, even in the medium term.
But before counting Russia out, there are some other factors to consider. Perhaps most important: Russia is not China. The Russian aerospace industry has a long history and deep technological know-how. It has a far more robust base to build on for the MS-21 than Comac has for the C919. Russian aerodynamicists are highly regarded, and where the industry has always been behind (particularly in engine technology) the aircraft can now rely on foreign partners. If it fails, it will not be because of a technology gap between it and Western models, but because of an inability to, for whatever reason, turn what appears to be a convincing design into a commercial success.
The MS-21 is by far the most advanced civil aircraft Russia has ever built. That applies to innovative technologies—unlike the 737 MAX or A320neo the aircraft has a composite wing—as well as to UAC’s industrial approach. At last, a Russian-led aircraft project is a truly international venture, as illustrated by the selection of Pratt & Whitney’s PW1400Ggeared turbofan engines along with other key systems. The country continues to make the most of its technical capabilities at home, especially from subsidiaries.
The MS-21 was formally launched as a successor to the Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-154 and Tu-204/-214. The Tu-154 fleet, which was a workhorse for Russian airlines 10 years ago, is now almost completely retired. The last Tu-204 commercial deliveries took place in early 2010; now UAC assembles a few units per year only for government customers. Although the improved Tu-204SM variant received Russian certification in 2013, no orders have been placed.
MS-21 development began in the mid-2000s. Its configuration was finally frozen in 2011. The rolled-out prototype represents the baseline MC-21-300 variant. It has a maximum takeoff weight of 79,250 kg (174,716 lb.) and will be able to carry up to 211 passengers a distance of 3,200 nm
If UAC manages to deliver the aircraft as specified, it will have some advantages over its Western competitors. Although the aircraft is longer than the A320neo by almost five meters (16 ft.) (see table), it weighs the same. It is three tons lighter than the 737-8, which is almost three meters shorter. In a typical two-class layout, manufacturer assumptions on seating capacity are nearly equivalent: 162 for the 737-8, 163 for the MS-21-300 and 165 for the A320neo. According to published specifications, the 737-8 and A320neo do seem to have a slight range advantage of about 200 nm.
UAC plans to offer two additional MS-21 variants. The smaller -200 is in preliminary design. Its maximum takeoff weight is planned to be 72,560 kg, as the fuselage will be 8.5 meters shorter. The aircraft will be designed for 165 passengers in two classes, and UAC expects it to have a maximum range of about 3,500 nm. The family officially includes the stretched 230-seat MS-21-400, but development has been shelved for several years, and its realization appears uncertain
The MS-21 is now scheduled to make its first flight in early 2017. Its 2016 target was delayed because of the time required to complete ground checks. Russian certification is planned for 2018, followed by European Aviation Safety Agency approval a year later, say Irkut officials.
The second test airframe is in final assembly at the Irkut plant. It is expected to be sent to TsAGI Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute in Zhukovsky for static tests in September. Irkut is now assembling two more aircraft, one for flight trials, the other for fatigue testing.
The MS-21 will enter service using the 31,000-lb.-thrust variant of the PW1400G-JM engine. Including the two installed on the prototype, Pratt & Whitney has delivered three engines to Irkut so far. The engine, which received FAA certification in early May, is turbo-mechanically identical to the PW1100G developed for the A320neo, but incorporates different accessories and external dressings to adapt it for the Russian airliner.
“We have sent two compliance engines and we have a third already sent out to Irkut. That engine has entered its podding cycle in Irkutsk,” says Jill Albertelli, vice president of Pratt’s 30K (30,000-lb.-thrust) programs. “Beyond that, we are delivering further PW1400Gs and have quite a few engines in our Middletown, Connecticut, and West Palm Beach, Florida, production facilities,” she adds. Albertelli says all MS-21 engines will reflect the post-certification improvements made to the Airbus engine.
The alternative powerplant will be the Aviadvigatel PD-14 engine, another UAC subsidiary. The PD-14 began flight tests on the IL76LL flying test lab in late 2015. United Engine Corp. says the first powerplants for testing onboard MS-21 will be available in 2017, and the first Russian-powered aircraft will be ready for delivery to airline customers in 2019.
UAC has bet high on lighter-weight materials: an all-composite high-aspect-ratio supercritical wing has been designed for maximum aerodynamic efficiency in cruise flight. Other composite components include the center wingbox as well as the vertical and horizontal fins. The wingbox and the wing panels are produced using vacuum infusion technology at AeroComposit in Ulyanovsk, another UAC subsidiary.
The avionics system has been designed and integrated by UAC, but features components supplied by Western manufacturers, among them Honeywell, Thales and Elbit Systems. The avionics suite includes multifunctional 9 X 12-in. displays, electronic flights bags, enhanced vision and synthetic vision systems. The MS-21 will also have active sidesticks supplied by United Technologies Aerospace Systems.
The MS-21 program builds on experience made with the Sukhoi Superjet 100 that attracted a significant number of foreign partners. “We welcome those [foreign] businessmen that work in Russia and achieve impressive successes together with our country,” Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at the MS-21 rollout ceremony.
International cooperation is not limited to components and subsystems. Irkut used foreign contractors to set up a modern production line at its facility in Irkutsk, a plant that was previously focused on the production of Sukhoi Su-30MK fighters and Yakovlev Yak-130 jet trainers. The MS-21 is the first commercial jet program for Irkut.
Irkut officials point out that they have gained a lot of understanding of Western commercial aircraft production standards from the experience as a supplier of landing gear bays for the Airbus A320. This partnership was forged in 2004 and initially included keel beams and flap tracks. Deliveries to Airbus began in 2007. The company now supplies 12 bays per month to Airbus.
The key challenge will be reaching a sufficient number of international sales. This will require proven high dispatch reliability and a track record of a well-functioning, efficient product-support organization wherever the aircraft flies. Previous Russian aircraft models’ deficiencies are well-documented. What is more, the MS-21 is competing with manufacturers that benefit from all the advantages of experience and a huge installed aircraft base. To convince a Western airline operating a large 737 or A320 fleet to switch to a newcomer will be extremely difficult.
According to Kirill Budaev, Irkut’s vice president of marketing and sales, the manufacturer plans to sell 1,060 MS-21s in the next 20 years. But the current backlog is nowhere near that target and has stood unchanged at 175 firm orders for many years. In addition, most orders have been placed by Russian government-owned leasing companies that can hardly be used as a reference for market success.
The largest customer—Avia Capital Services, a subsidiary of Russia’s Rostec state corporation—signed for 85 aircraft. Fifty are earmarked for launch operator Aeroflot. Two other Russian lessors, Ilyushin Finance and VEB Leasing, ordered 50 and 30 aircraft, respectively. The only direct airline order for 10 aircraft came from Irkutsk-based Iraero. Irkut says it also has about 100 additional preliminary commitments.
Pricing will be an important element. In order to compete in the global market, UAC assumes the MS-21 will have to entice buyers by offering a price that is 15% lower than its rivals’. The list price for the MS-21-300 version is currently $91 million. That compares to $107 million for the A320neo and $110 million for the 737-8 (in 2015 dollars).
Teal’s Aboulafia questions how sufficient efficiency gains can be reached to allow for the lower price tag, noting that the Russian manufacturer is drawing on many of the same suppliers that Airbus and Boeing use and is unlikely to get those components at a lower price. In fact, quite the opposite may be the case. “You’d have to be super efficient” to lower costs that much, he says.
MS-21 development costs have amounted to 100 billion rubles ($1.5 billion) so far Of this sum, 80% was underwritten by the Russian government; the rest was financed by UAC. The government is likely to continue providing support for the MS-21 program as it does for the in-production Sukhoi Superjet SSJ100.
by AW